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Administered by: Finance
Published Date 03 Jul 2020

 

To the Assistant Minister for Finance, Charities and Electoral Matters

Notification of Determination

Section 49 Certificate – Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918

I, Tom Rogers, Electoral Commissioner, hereby certify that:

Pursuant to section 46 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (the Electoral Act), I have this day ascertained the number of the people of the Commonwealth, States and Territories, and those numbers are as follows:

 

The Commonwealth

24,845,330

 

The States

 

 

New South Wales

8,128,984

 

Victoria

6,651,074

 

Queensland

5,129,996

 

Western Australia

2,639,080

 

South Australia

1,759,184

 

Tasmania

537,012

 

The Territories

 

 

Australian Capital Territory

440,253

 

Northern Territory

247,280

 

Norfolk Island

1,742

 

The Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands

563

 

The Territory of Christmas Island

1,956

 

Australian Antarctic Territory

220

 

Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands

0

 

Coral Sea Islands Territory

4

 

Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands

0

 

 


 

Pursuant to section 48 of the Electoral Act, I have this day determined the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the States and Territories at a general election to be as follows:

State/Territory

Number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the State or Territory

The States

 

 

New South Wales

47

 

Victoria

39

 

Queensland

30

 

Western Australia

15

 

South Australia

10

 

Tasmania

5

 

The Territories

 

 

Australian Capital Territory

3

 

Northern Territory

1

 

Norfolk Island

0

 

The Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands

0

 

The Territory of Christmas Island

0

 

Australian Antarctic Territory

0

 

Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands

0

 

Coral Sea Islands Territory

0

 

Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands

0

 

TOTAL

150

 

 


 

As required by section 49 of the Electoral Act, the following tables provide details of the statistical information supplied by the Australian Statistician, the adjustments made to the statistical information supplied by the Australian Statistician, calculations involved in arriving at those adjusted numbers, and the calculations involved in the making of the determination of the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the States and Territories at a general election. 

1.      Reference date

The 2019 federal election was held on Saturday 18 May 2019.

In the 46th Parliament, the first meeting of the House of Representatives was held on Tuesday 2 July 2019.

The reference day is Friday 3 July 2020.


 

2.      Number of the people of the States and Territories as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

This ascertainment has been made using statistics supplied to the Electoral Commissioner by the Australian Statistician on 18 June 2020 in accordance with section 47 of the Electoral Act.  The information supplied is reproduced in Tables 11 and 12.

Table 1: Number of the people of the States and Territories as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

State/Territory

Population supplied by the Australian Statistician

Adjustment

Population as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

New South Wales

8,128,984

0

8,128,984

Victoria

6,651,074

0

6,651,074

Queensland

5,129,996

0

5,129,996

Western Australia

2,639,080

0

2,639,080

South Australia

1,759,184

0

1,759,184

Tasmania

537,012

0

537,012

Australian Capital Territory

427,419

398

427,817

Northern Territory

244,761

0

244,761

Norfolk Island

1,742

0

1,742

The Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands

563

0

563

The Territory of Christmas Island

1,956

0

1,956

Australian Antarctic Territory

220

0

220

Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands

0

0

0

Coral Sea Islands Territory

4

0

4

Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands

0

0

0

Note:      1) Pursuant to section 38A of the Electoral Act, the Australian Capital Territory includes the Jervis Bay Territory. 

 

 

 


 

3.      The population quota

To determine the number of members of the House of Representatives each state and territory is entitled to, the Electoral Commissioner is required to calculate the population quota using the following formula:

Population quota

=

Number of the people of the Commonwealth as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Twice the number of senators for the States

 

Table 2: Number of the people of the Commonwealth as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

State

Population as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

New South Wales

8,128,984

Victoria

6,651,074

Queensland

5,129,996

Western Australia

2,639,080

South Australia

1,759,184

Tasmania

537,012

The Commonwealth

24,845,330

Note:      1) Pursuant to section 45 of the Electoral Act, the number of the people of the Commonwealth does not include the people of the Territories.

               

 

Table 3: Population quota

Number of the people of the Commonwealth as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

24,845,330

Twice the number of senators for the States

       (2 x (12 x 6))

144

Population quota

172,537.013889

 


 

4.      Number of members for the states

To calculate the number of members of the House of Representatives for a state, the ascertained number of people of the state is divided by the population quota, and the result rounded to the nearest whole number.

Number of members for a state

=

Ascertained population of individual state

Population quota

 

 

Table 4: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which each State is entitled to

State/Territory

Number of people of the State ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Population quota

Number of members of the House of Representatives

Number of members of the House of Representatives  – application of rounding rule

New South Wales

 8,128,984

172,537.01389

47.11443543

47

Victoria

 6,651,074

172,537.01389

38.54867921

39

Queensland

 5,129,996

172,537.01389

29.7327274

30

Western Australia

 2,639,080

172,537.01389

15.29573244

15

South Australia

 1,759,184

172,537.01389

10.19598033

10

Tasmania

 537,012

172,537.01389

3.112445196

5

Note:      1) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2)(b) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder greater than one-half of the quota, one more member shall be chosen.

                2) Section 24 of the Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act specifies the requirements for the composition of the House of Representatives, requiring that ‘… five members at least shall be chosen in each Original State’. Original States are defined in section 6 as meaning ‘… such States are parts of the Commonwealth at its establishment’.  As Tasmania is an Original State, it is guaranteed a minimum of five members of the House of Representatives.

 

 


 

5.      Number of members for the territories

To calculate the number of members of the House of Representatives for a state, the ascertained number of people of the state is divided by the population quota, and the result rounded to the nearest whole number.

Number of members for a territory

=

Ascertained population of individual territory

Population quota

 

Table 5: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which each Territory is entitled to

State/Territory

Number of people of the Territory ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Population quota

Number of members of the House of Representatives

Number of members of the House of Representatives  – application of rounding rule

Australian Capital Territory

 427,817

172,537.01389

2.479566502

2

Northern Territory

 244,761

172,537.01389

1.418599954

1

Norfolk Island

 1,742

172,537.01389

0.010096384

0

The Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands

 563

172,537.01389

0.003263068

0

The Territory of Christmas Island

 1,956

172,537.01389

0.011336698

0

Australian Antarctic Territory

 220

172,537.01389

0.001275089

0

Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands

0  

172,537.01389

0

0

Coral Sea Islands Territory

 4

172,537.01389

0.000023183

0

Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands

0  

172,537.01389

0

0

Note:      1) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(a) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder less than or equal to 0.5, no member of the House of Representatives is to be chosen for that Territory.

2) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(b) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder of greater than 0.5 and less than or equal to 1.5, one member of the House of Representatives is to be chosen for that Territory.

3) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(c) of the Electoral Act, in any other case, where there is a remainder greater than one-half of the quota, one more member shall be chosen.

 


 

6.      Adjustments for the Australian Capital Territory to incorporate Norfolk Island

Pursuant to sub-section 48(2C) of the Electoral Act, as Norfolk Island is not entitled to a member of the House of Representatives, the population is added to the population of the Australian Capital Territory and the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Australian Capital Territory is entitled is recalculated.  See Tables 6 and 7.

 

Table 6: Adjustments to the population of the Australian Capital Territory

Number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

427,817

Number of the people of Norfolk Island as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

1,742

Adjusted population of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

429,559

Note:      1) Number of people of the Australian Capital Territory and Norfolk Island as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 1.

 

Table 7: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Australian Capital Territory is entitled to

Number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

429,559

Population quota

172,537.01389

Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Australian Capital Territory

2.489662886

Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Australian Capital Territory – application of rounding rule

2

Note:      1) The number of people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 6.

2) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(a) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder less than or equal to 0.5, no member of the House of Representatives is to be chosen for that Territory.

3) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(b) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder of greater than 0.5 and less than or equal to 1.5, one member of the House of Representatives is to be chosen for that Territory.

4) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(c) of the Electoral Act, in any other case, where there is a remainder greater than one-half of the quota, one more member shall be chosen.

 

 


 

7.      Adjustments for the Northern Territory to incorporate Christmas Island and Cocos (Keeling) Islands

Pursuant to sub-section 48(2C) of the Electoral Act, as the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and the Territory of Christmas Island are not entitled to a member of the House of Representatives, the populations of both are added to the population of the Northern Territory and the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Northern Territory is entitled is recalculated.  See Tables 8 and 9.

 

Table 8: Adjustments to the population of the Northern Territory

Number of the people of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

244,761

Number of the people of the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

563

Number of the people of the Territory of Christmas Island as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

1,956

Adjusted population of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

247,280

Note:      1) The number of people of the Northern Territory, the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and the Territory of Christmas Island as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 1.

 

Table 9: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Northern Territory is entitled to

Number of the people of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

247,280

Population quota

172,537.01389

Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Northern Territory

1.43319972

Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Northern Territory – application of rounding rule

1

Note:      1) The number of people of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 8.

2) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(a) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder less than or equal to 0.5, no member of the House of Representatives is to be chosen for that Territory.

3) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(b) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder of greater than 0.5 and less than or equal to 1.5, one member of the House of Representatives is to be chosen for that Territory.

4) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(c) of the Electoral Act, in any other case, where there is a remainder greater than one-half of the quota, one more member shall be chosen.


 

8.      Adjustments for the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory

Where the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Australian Capital Territory is entitled is equal to a whole number (known as the ‘relevant whole number’) and a remainder that is less than or equal to one-half of the population quota, sub-section 48(2E) of the Electoral Act specifies an additional calculation be performed which, under specified circumstances, will result in the ascertained population being altered which may result in the entitlement increasing. The ascertained population is altered if the following holds true:

(Population quota x Relevant whole number and one-half) – (Ascertained population of the Australian Capital Territory) ≤ Twice the standard error of the Australian Statistician’s estimate of the net undercount for the Australian Capital Territory at the last Census

Australian Capital Territory

Table 10: Calculations to determine whether sub-section 48(2E) of the Electoral Act applies to the Australian Capital Territory

Relevant whole number

2

Relevant whole number + 0.5

2.5

Population quota

     172,537.013889

Number of people required to achieve 2.5 quotas

431,342.5347

Number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

429,559

Difference between the number of people required to achieve 2.5 quotas and the ascertained population

1,783.534722

Twice the standard error of the estimated net undercount for the Australian Capital Territory

10,694

Is the difference less than twice the standard error?

Yes

Does sub-section 48(2E) of the Electoral Act apply to the Australian Capital Territory?

Yes

Note:      1) The number of people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 6.

2) In accordance with sub-section 48(2F) of the Electoral Act, the ascertained population of the Australian Capital Territory is taken to never have been made.  The number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory is increased by a number equal to twice the standard error of the estimated net undercount for the Australian Capital Territory.

 


 

Table 11: Adjustment to the population of the Australian Capital Territory and recalculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Australian Capital Territory is entitled to

Number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

429,559

Twice the standard error of the estimated net undercount for the Australian Capital Territory

10,694

Adjusted population of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

440,253

Population quota

172,537.01389

Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Australian Capital Territory

2.55164379

Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Australian Capital Territory – application of rounding rule

3

Note:      1) The number of people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 6.

2) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(a) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder less than or equal to 0.5, no member of the House of Representatives is to be chosen for that Territory.

3) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(b) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder of greater than 0.5 and less than or equal to 1.5, one member of the House of Representatives is to be chosen for that Territory.

4) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(c) of the Electoral Act, in any other case, where there is a remainder greater than one-half of the quota, one more member shall be chosen.


 

Northern Territory

Table 12: Calculations to determine whether sub-section 48(2E) of the Electoral Act applies to the Northern Territory

Relevant whole number

1

Relevant whole number + 0.5

1.5

Population quota

172,537.013889

Number of people required to achieve 2.5 quotas

258,805.5208

Number of the people of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

247,280

Difference between the number of people required to achieve 2.5 quotas and the ascertained population

11,525.52083

Twice the standard error of the estimated net undercount for the Northern Territory

7,440

Is the difference less than twice the standard error?

No

Does sub-section 48(2E) of the Electoral Act apply to the Northern Territory?

No

Note:      1) The number of people of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 6.

2) In accordance with sub-section 48(2F) of the Electoral Act, the ascertained population of the Northern is taken to never have been made.  The number of the people of the Northern Territory is increased by a number equal to twice the standard error of the estimated net undercount for the Northern Territory.

 

 

 


 

9.      Information supplied by the Australian Statistician

Table 13: Populations supplied by the Australian Statistician in accordance with section 47 of the Electoral Act

 

Estimated resident population as at 31 December 2019

The States

 

 

New South Wales

8,128,984

 

Victoria

6,651,074

 

Queensland

5,129,996

 

Western Australia

2,639,080

 

South Australia

1,759.184

 

Tasmania

537,012

 

The Territories

 

 

Australian Capital Territory (excluding Jervis Bay Territory)

427,419

 

Northern Territory

244,761

 

Norfolk Island

1,742

 

The Jervis Bay Territory

398

 

The Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands

563

 

The Territory of Christmas Island

1,956

 

Australian Antarctic Territory

220

 

Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands

0

 

Coral Sea Islands Territory

4

 

Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands

0

 

Note:      1) The Australian Statistician confirmed the information presented above, was compiled and published in a regular series on 18 June 2020 in Table 3 of the ABS publication Australian Demographic Statistics, December Quarter 2019 (ABS cat. No. 3101.0) in accordance with sections 9 and 12 of the Census and Statistics Act 1905.  The Australian Statistician also confirmed they are the most recent population estimates published before 3 July 2020 (the reference day).

 


 

Table 14: Other information relating to the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory supplied by the Australian Statistician in accordance with section 47 of the Electoral Act

Information

Australian Capital Territory

Northern Territory

Australian Statistician’s estimate of the net undercount for the Territory at the 2016 Census

-4,132

12,020

Standard error of the estimate of the net undercount for the Territory at the 2016 Census

5,347

3,720

Upper limit of the 95% confidence interval of the estimate of the net undercount for the Territory at the 2016 Census

6,562

19,460

Lower limit of the 95% confidence interval of the estimate of the net undercount for the Territory at the 2016 Census

-14,826

4,580

Note:      1) The Australian Statistician advised the information presented above, in respect of the 2016 Census of Population and Housing, was published on 23 February 2018 in the ABS publication Census of Population and Housing: Details of Overcount and Undercount, Australia, 2016 (ABS cat. no. 2940.0).

 

 

 

 

 

SIGNED

Tom Rogers

Electoral Commissioner

 

3 July 2020