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Administered by: Finance
Published Date 31 Aug 2017

 

To the Minister for Finance

Notification of Determination

Section 49 Certificate – Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918

I, Tom Rogers, Electoral Commissioner, hereby certify that:

Pursuant to section 46 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (the Electoral Act),[1] I have this day ascertained the number of the people of the Commonwealth, States and Territories, and those numbers are as follows:

The Commonwealth

23,729,561

The States

 

New South Wales

7,797,791

Victoria

6,244,227

Queensland

4,883,739

Western Australia

2,567,788

South Australia

1,716,966

Tasmania

519,050

The Territories

 

Australian Capital Territory

419,256

Northern Territory

247,512

Norfolk Island

1,756

The Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands

550

The Territory of Christmas Island

1,914

Australian Antarctic Territory

57

Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands

0

Coral Sea Islands Territory

3

Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands

0

 

Pursuant to section 48 of the Electoral Act, I have this day determined the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the States and Territories at a general election to be as follows:

State/Territory

Number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the State or Territory

The States

 

New South Wales

47

Victoria

38

Queensland

30

Western Australia

16

South Australia

10

Tasmania

5

The Territories

 

Australian Capital Territory

3

Northern Territory

2

Australian Antarctic Territory

0

Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands

0

Coral Sea Islands Territory

0

Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands

0

Total

151

 


 

As required by section 49 of the Electoral Act, the following tables provide details of the statistical information supplied by the Australian Statistician, the adjustments made to the statistical information supplied by the Australian Statistician, calculations involved in arriving at those adjusted numbers, and the calculations involved in the making of the determination of the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the States and Territories at a general election. 

Table 1: Number of the people of the States and Territories as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

State/Territory

Population supplied by the Australian Statistician

Adjustment

Population as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

New South Wales

7,797,791

0

7,797,791

Victoria

6,244,227

0

6,244,227

Queensland

4,883,739

0

4,883,739

Western Australia

2,567,788

0

2,567,788

South Australia

1,716,966

0

1,716,966

Tasmania

519,050

0

519,050

Australian Capital Territory

(excluding Jervis Bay Territory)

406,403

403

406,806

Northern Territory

245,048

0

245,048

Norfolk Island

1,756

0

1,756

Jervis Bay Territory

403

0

403

The Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands

550

0

550

The Territory of Christmas Island

1,914

0

1,914

Australian Antarctic Territory

57

0

57

Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands

0

0

0

Coral Sea Islands Territory

3

0

3

Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands

0

0

0

Note:      1) Pursuant to section 38A of the Electoral Act, the Australian Capital Territory includes the Jervis Bay Territory. 

 


 

To determine the number of members of the House of Representatives each state and territory is entitled to, the Electoral Commissioner is required to calculate the population quota using the following formula:

Number of the people of the Commonwealth as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Twice the number of senators for the States

 

Table 2: Number of the people of the Commonwealth as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

State

Population as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

New South Wales

7,797,791

Victoria

6,244,227

Queensland

4,883,739

Western Australia

2,567,788

South Australia

1,716,966

Tasmania

519,050

The Commonwealth

23,729,561

Note:      1) Pursuant to section 45 of the Electoral Act, the number of the people of the Commonwealth does not include the people of the Territories.

                2)  Population as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 2.

 

Table 3: Population quota

Number of the people of the Commonwealth as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

23,729,561

Twice the number of senators for the States

(2 x (12 x 6))

144

Population quota

164,788.61806

 


 

Table 4: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which each State is entitled to

State/Territory

Number of people of the State ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Population quota

Number of members of the House of Representatives

Number of members of the House of Representatives  – application of rounding rule

New South Wales

 7,797,791

 164,788.61806

47.31996

47

Victoria

 6,244,227

 164,788.61806

37.89234

38

Queensland

 4,883,739

 164,788.61806

29.63639

30

Western Australia

 2,567,788

 164,788.61806

15.58231

16

South Australia

 1,716,966

 164,788.61806

10.41920

10

Tasmania

 519,050

 164,788.61806

3.14979

5

Note:      1) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2)(b) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder greater than one-half of the quota, one more member shall be chosen.

                2) Section 24 of the Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act specifies the requirements for the composition of the House of Representatives, requiring that ‘… five members at least shall be chosen in each Original State’. Original States are defined in section 6 as meaning ‘… such States are parts of the Commonwealth at its establishment’.  As Tasmania is an Original State, it is guaranteed a minimum of five members of the House of Representatives.

 


 

Table 5: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which each Territory is entitled to

State/Territory

Number of people of the Territory ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Population quota

Number of members of the House of Representatives

Number of members of the House of Representatives  – application of rounding rule

Australian Capital Territory

406,806

164,788.61806

2.46865

2

Northern Territory

245,048

164,788.61806

1.48704

1

Norfolk Island

1,756

164,788.61806

0.01066

0

The Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands

550

164,788.61806

0.00334

0

The Territory of Christmas Island

1,914

164,788.61806

0.01161

0

Australian Antarctic Territory

57

164,788.61806

0.00035

0

Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands

0

164,788.61806

0.00000

0

Coral Sea Islands Territory

3

164,788.61806

0.00002

0

Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands

0

164,788.61806

0.00000

0

Note:      1) Pursuant to sub-section 48(2C) of the Electoral Act, as Norfolk Island is not entitled to a member of the House of Representatives, the population is added to the population of the Australian Capital Territory and the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Australian Capital Territory is entitled is recalculated.  See Table 6.

2) Pursuant to sub-section 48(2C) of the Electoral Act, as the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and the Territory of Christmas Island are not entitled to a member of the House of Representatives, the populations of both are added to the population of the Northern Territory and the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Northern Territory is entitled is recalculated.  See Tables 10 and 11.  

                3)  Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(a) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder less than or equal to 0.5, no member of the House of Representatives is to be chosen for that Territory.

4) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(c) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder greater than one-half of the quota, one more member shall be chosen.


 

Table 6: Adjustments to the population of the Australian Capital Territory

Number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

406,806

Number of the people of Norfolk Island as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

1,756

Adjusted population of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

408,562

Note:      1) Number of people of the Australian Capital Territory and Norfolk Island as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 1.

 

Table 7: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Australian Capital Territory is entitled to

Number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

408,562

Population quota

164,788.61806

Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Australian Capital Territory

2.47931

Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Australian Capital Territory – application of rounding rule

2

Note:      1) The number of people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 6.

2) Where the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Australian Capital Territory is entitled is equal to a whole number (known as the ‘relevant whole number’) and a remainder that is less than or equal to one-half of the population quota, sub-section 48(2E) of the Electoral Act specifies an additional calculation be performed which, under specified circumstances, will result in the ascertained population being altered which may result in the entitlement increasing. The ascertained population is altered if the following holds true:

(Population quota x Relevant whole number and one-half) – (Ascertained population of the Australian Capital Territory) ≤ Twice the standard error of the Australian Statistician’s estimate of the net undercount for the Australian Capital Territory at the last Census

 


 

Table 8: Calculations to determine whether sub-section 48(2E) of the Electoral Act applies to the Australian Capital Territory

Relevant whole number

2

Relevant whole number + 0.5

2.5

Population quota

164,788.61806

Number of people required to achieve 2.5 quotas

411,971.54514

Number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

408,562

Difference between the number of people required to achieve 2.5 quotas and the ascertained population

3,410

Twice the standard error of the estimated net undercount for the Australian Capital Territory

10,694

Is the difference less than twice the standard error?

Yes

Does sub-section 48(2E) of the Electoral Act apply to the Australian Capital Territory?

Yes

Note:      1) The number of people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 6.

2) In accordance with sub-section 48(2F) of the Electoral Act, the ascertained population of the Australian Capital Territory is taken to never have been made.  The number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory is increased by a number equal to twice the standard error of the estimated net undercount for the Australian Capital Territory.

 

Table 9: Adjustment to the population of the Australian Capital Territory and recalculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Australian Capital Territory is entitled to

Number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

408,562

Twice the standard error of the estimated net undercount for the Australian Capital Territory

10,694

Adjusted population of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

419,256

Population quota

164,788.61806

Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Australian Capital Territory

2.54420

Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Australian Capital Territory – application of rounding rule

3

Note:      1) The number of people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 6.

 

Table 10: Adjustments to the population of the Northern Territory

Number of the people of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

245,048

Number of the people of the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

550

Number of the people of the Territory of Christmas Island as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

1,914

Adjusted population of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

247,512

Note:      1) The number of people of the Northern Territory, the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and the Territory of Christmas Island as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 5.

 

Table 11: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Northern Territory is entitled to

Number of the people of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

247,512

Population quota

164,788.61806

Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Northern Territory

1.50200

Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Northern Territory – application of rounding rule

2

Note:      1) The number of people of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 10.

 


 

Table 12: Populations supplied by the Australian Statistician in accordance with section 47 of the Electoral Act

The States

 

New South Wales

7,797,791

Victoria

6,244,227

Queensland

4,883,739

Western Australia

2,567,788

South Australia

1,716,966

Tasmania

519,050

The Territories

 

Australian Capital Territory (excluding Jervis Bay Territory)

406,403

Northern Territory

245,048

Norfolk Island

1,756

The Jervis Bay Territory

403

The Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands

550

The Territory of Christmas Island

1,914

Australian Antarctic Territory

57

Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands

0

Coral Sea Islands Territory

3

Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands

0

 


 

Table 13: Other information relating to the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory supplied by the Australian Statistician in accordance with section 47 of the Electoral Act

Information

Australian Capital Territory

Northern Territory

Australian Statistician’s estimate of the net undercount for the Territory at the 2016 Census

-4,132

12,020

Standard error of the estimate of the net undercount for the Territory at the 2016 Census

5,347

3,720

Two standard errors of the net undercount for the Territory at the 2016 Census

6,348

19,312

Upper limit of the 95% confidence interval of the estimate of the net undercount for the Territory at the 2016 Census

-14,612

4,729

Lower limit of the 95% confidence interval of the estimate of the net undercount for the Territory at the 2016 Census

10,694

7,441

Note:      1) The Australian Statistician advised the information presented above, in respect of the 2016 Census of Population and housing, was published on 27 June 2017 in the ABS publication Census of Population and Housing – Details of Overcount and Undercount (ABS cat. no. 2940.0).

2) For the estimate of the net undercount, a negative number indicates a net overcount.

3) The two standard errors was calculated by using the unrounded standard error, as published, then rounded.

 

 

SIGNED

Tom Rogers

Electoral Commissioner

 

31 August 2017



[1] This ascertainment has been made using statistics supplied to the Electoral Commissioner by the Australian Statistician on 28 July 2017 in accordance with section 47 of the Electoral Act and published in the Australian Demographic Statistics, December Quarter 2016 (ABS cat. no. 3101.0) on 27 June 2017.  These statistics have been reproduced in Tables 12 and 13.