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Administered by: Finance
Published Date 17 Nov 2014

 

 

To the Special Minister of State

 

 

Notification of Determination

Section 49 Certificate – Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918

 

 

I, Tom Rogers, Acting Electoral Commissioner, hereby certify that:

 

Pursuant to section 46 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (the Electoral Act)[1], I have this day ascertained the number of the people of the Commonwealth, States and Territories, and those numbers are as follows:

 

 

 

The Commonwealth[2]

22,793,303

 

 

The States

 

New South Wales

 7,500,617

Victoria

 5,821,269

Queensland

 4,708,510

Western Australia

 2,565,588

South Australia

 1,682,635

Tasmania

 514,684

 

 

The Territories [3]

 

Australian Capital Territory[4] [5]

 386,092

Northern Territory5

  243,689  

The Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands

572

The Territory of Christmas Island

 2,217

Australian Antarctic Territory

102

Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands

0

Coral Sea Islands Territory

4

Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands

0

 

 


Pursuant to section 48 of the Electoral Act, I have this day determined the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the States and Territories at a general election to be as follows:

 

State/Territory

Number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the State or Territory

 

 

The States

 

New South Wales

47

Victoria

37

Queensland

30

Western Australia

16

South Australia

11

Tasmania[6]

5

 

 

The Territories

 

Australian Capital Territory

2

Northern Territory

2

Australian Antarctic Territory

0

Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands

0

Coral Sea Islands Territory

0

Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands

0

 

 

 

 

 


As required by section 49 of the Electoral Act, the following tables provide details of the statistical information supplied by the Australian Statistician, the adjustments made to the statistical information supplied by the Australian Statistician, calculations involved in arriving at those adjusted numbers, and the calculations involved in the making of the determination of the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the States and Territories at a general election. 

 

Table 1:   Population statistics supplied by the Australian Statistician in accordance with section 47 of the Electoral Act:

 

 

 

The States

 

Population

 

 

 

New South Wales

 

 7,500,617

Victoria

 

 5,821,269

Queensland

 

 4,708,510

Western Australia

 

 2,565,588

South Australia

 

 1,682,635

Tasmania

 

 514,684

 

 

 

The Territories

 

Population

 

 

 

Australian Capital Territory (excluding Jervis Bay)

 

 385,573

Northern Territory

 

 243,668

Jervis Bay Territory

 

408

The Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands

 

572

The Territory of Christmas Island

 

 2,217

Australian Antarctic Territory

 

102

Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands

 

0

Coral Sea Islands Territory

 

4

Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands

 

0

 

 

 

Table 1A:       Other statistics relating to the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory supplied by the Australian Statistician in accordance with section 47 of the Electoral Act:

 

 

Australian Statistician’s estimate of the net undercount

2011 Census

Standard Error
of the estimate of net undercount 2011 Census

Two Standard Errors of the net undercount 2011 Census

Upper limit of the 95% confidence interval of the estimate of net undercount

Lower limit of the 95% confidence interval of the estimate of net undercount

Australian Capital Territory

 2,595

 3,055

 6,110

 8,705

-3,515

Northern Territory

 15,716

 3,074

 6,148

 21,864

 9,568


Table 2:   Details of adjustments made to the statistical information supplied by the Australian Statistician in arriving at the number of the people of the States in accordance with section 46 of the Electoral Act:

 

State

Population statistics supplied by Australian Statistician

Adjustments

Population as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

New South Wales

 7,500,617

0

 7,500,617

Victoria

 5,821,269

0

 5,821,269

Queensland

 4,708,510

0

 4,708,510

Western Australia

 2,565,588

0

 2,565,588

South Australia

 1,682,635

0

 1,682,635

Tasmania

 514,684

0

 514,684

 

 

 

Table 3:   Details of the adjustments made to the statistical information supplied by the Australian Statistician in arriving at the number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory in accordance with section 46 of the Electoral Act:

 

 

Population statistics supplied by Australian Statistician

Jervis Bay population statistics supplied by Australian Statistician

Norfolk Island residents enrolled in the ACT[7] s46(2)

Population as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Australian Capital Territory

 385,573

408

111

 386,092

 

 

 

Table 4:   Details of the adjustments made to the statistical information supplied by the Australian Statistician in arriving at the number of the people of the Northern Territory in accordance with section 46 of the Electoral Act:

 

 

Population statistics supplied by Australian Statistician

 

Norfolk Island residents enrolled in the Northern Territory7 s46(2)

Population as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Northern Territory

 243,668

 

21

 243,689

 

 


Table 5:   Details of the adjustments made to the statistical information supplied by the Australian Statistician in arriving at the number of the people of the other Territories in accordance with section 46 of the Electoral Act:

 

Territory

Population statistics supplied by Australian Statistician

Adjustment

Number of the people as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands

572

0

572

Territory of Christmas Island

 2,217

0

 2,217

Australian Antarctic Territory

102

0

102

Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands

0

0

0

Coral Sea Islands Territory

4

0

4

Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands

0

0

0

 

 

Table 6:   Details of the calculations performed in determining the quota in accordance with paragraph 48(2)(a) of the Electoral Act:

 

Number of the people of the Commonwealth as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Divided by twice the number of Senators for the States
(72 x 2)

Quota

22,793,303

144

158,286.8264

 

 

Table 7:   Details of the calculations performed in determining the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in each State in accordance with paragraph 48(1)(a) of the Electoral Act:

 

State

Number of the people of the State as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Divided by the Quota

Result of the division

Number of Members to be chosen

New South Wales

 7,500,617

158,286.8264

47.3862

47

Victoria

 5,821,269

158,286.8264

36.7767

37

Queensland

 4,708,510

158,286.8264

29.7467

30

Western Australia

 2,565,588

158,286.8264

16.2085

16

South Australia

 1,682,635

158,286.8264

10.6303

11

Tasmania

 514,684

158,286.8264

3.2516

5

 

 

 

Table 8:   Details of the calculations performed in determining whether subsection 48(2E) applies to the Australian Capital Territory:

 

Number of the people of the ACT as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Number of people required to achieve 2.5 quotas

Difference

Twice the Standard Error of the estimated net undercount for the ACT
(2 x 3,055)

Is the difference less than twice the Standard Error?

Does section 48(2E) apply to the ACT?

386,092

395,717

9,625

6,110

No

No


Table 9:   Details of the calculations performed in determining the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the Australian Capital Territory in accordance with paragraph 48(2A)(c):

 

 

Number of the people of the ACT as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Divided by the Quota

Result of the division

Number of Members to be chosen

Australian Capital Territory

386,092

158,286.8264

2.4392

2

 

 

Table 10: Details of the calculations to determine the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and the Territory of Christmas Island:

 

Territory

Number of the people as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Divided by the Quota

Result of the division

Number of Members to be chosen

Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands

572

 158,286.8264

0.0036

0

 

 

Territory of

Christmas Island

 

2,217

 

158,286.8264

 

0.0140

 

0

 

 

 

Table 11: Details of the calculations performed in ascertaining the number of people of the Northern Territory in accordance with subparagraph 48(2C)(e)(i):

 

 

Number of the people of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Number of the people of the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Number of the people of the Territory of Christmas Island as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

New ascertainment of the number of the people of the Northern Territory in accordance with subparagraph 48 (2C)(e)(i)

Northern Territory

243,689

572

2,217

246,478

 

 

Table 12: Details of the calculations performed in determining the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the Northern Territory in accordance with subsection 48(2C):

 

 

Number of the people of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Divided by the Quota

Result of the division

Number of members to be chosen

Northern Territory

246,478

158,286.8264

1.5572

2

 

Signed

 

Tom Rogers

Acting Electoral Commissioner

 

13 November 2014



[1] This ascertainment has been made using statistics supplied to the Electoral Commissioner by the Australian Statistician on 22 October 2014 in accordance with section 47 of the Electoral Act and published in the Australian Demographic Statistics, March 2014 Quarter (ABS Cat. no. 3101.0) – Table 8 on 25 September 2014.

[2] Pursuant to section 45 of the Electoral Act, the number of the people of the Commonwealth does not include the people of the Territories.

[3] Pursuant to section 38A of the Electoral Act, the Territory of Norfolk Island is not taken to be a Territory for the purposes of this ascertainment.

[4] Pursuant to section 4(1) of the Electoral Act, the Jervis Bay Territory is taken to be part of the Australian Capital Territory for the purposes of this ascertainment. 

[5] Pursuant to section 46(2) of the Electoral Act, a Norfolk Island resident who is enrolled in a Territory under section 95AA(3) of the Electoral Act is included in the count of the population of that Territory for the purposes of this ascertainment.

 

[6] Tasmania is guaranteed a minimum of five members under section 24 of the Constitution.

[7] Source: Australian Electoral Commission enrolment data.